Friday, November 21, 2008

Barack Obama: Space for Our Angels to Prevail

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The final squiggle below says it all. Barack up and heading for the top. McCain on a downward trajectory. And as I type this, the notion that tomorrow the waiting will be a celebration. No one who cares will leave and those who are for Barack care in unprecedented numbers.

Barack's Grandmother died today. I feel somehow that an appropriate response is this slideshow of people who have been deeply affected in the days leading up to tomorrow. Like Moses who could not go further, or Martin who could not get there with us, she was at the mountaintop and that must be how we remember her. SOURCE

No Palin medical records yet. That would disqualify the ticket in itself. SOURCE

Ohio crowds dwindled for both McCain and Palin yesterday. Even with Gretchen Wilson and Rudy 9/11. SOURCE

Stuart Rothenberg made a bad call in dismissing Dole's campaign ad in NC as political theater on CNN. Amazing. The structure of the ad was vicious and anyone with production smarts and a conscience would have known it. I am disgusted. And surprised.

You want reliable? Try Betfair. SOURCE

Since "major" bloggers and media folk are making predictions, I may as well do so too. I predict a landslide with the possibility of a more than 400 EV win for Obama. My most optimistic prediction is the map at the base of this page. Since that includes victories where Barack is said to be seven or so points down, let me elaborate. His victory will be the product of widespread feeling already that he will win, this will increase as a wind heading Westward as the time zones are reached. Thus in a state like Texas where he is said to be down, he will pick up four or more points and win. That is best case. I also believe Republicans will not vote or will not pull the McCain-Palin lever. They may also be defeated by long lines. Democrats will endure these indignities. I also believe the 538 analysis that polls which included cell phones are more accurate and tend toward larger Obama margins. Finally, I believe there will be an insurance vote phenomenon. People who want to make damned sure that no hanky panky will mess with the result. This will help Democratic turnout and persistence at the polls. I happily predict that we will know this all within an hour or so once polling places close, also that the Edison exit polls will prove reasonably accurate and indicate a massive Obama margin nearly everywhere. In Montana I go with Schweitzer's prediction of a narrow Barack win with about 7 percent going to third party candidates Paul and Barr. Yes, Paul is on the ballot. The Montana victory will me among my most delicious treats.

McCain going down in shames SOURCE

PPP goes beserk -- a ton of generally good results, such as 6 point leads in VA and PA and so forth SOURCE

A new widget at the base of this page will clue you in on the latest 538 analyses.

Election day survival kit SOURCE
: Space for Our Angels to PrevailThe following is adapted from my book Abba's Way.

Initially, the state was formed from failure: from crimes, disease run rampant and deep hate. To check the dangers, tortures, fires and floods. Reason enough to make a state, I think.

We have tortures and floods right now, you say. Correct. Our state has not been virtuous or smart. But that is changing now. Our better angels are at work.

They're prompting us to vote and quarantine the rogues. To overcome the Palinesque critique, simplistic, hypocritical and flawed. To mute the sad sub-current of the mob.

We know a spark exists in everyone, a universal will to overcome.

We eschew vain protest, seek remedies, a smarter way. We make a value choice. Honor is courage to end war. Patriotism's choice, not echo of some martial screed.

We need space for these angels to prevail.

A state succeeds when crime recedes, when hate is modified. When tortures end and prisons are less used. When living spaces resist fire and flood. When neighborhoods show angels in our eyes. When we can simply live as we are meant. And choose the values that are integral.

Still, lions do not lie with lambs until they have the space to freely state a case.

And that's OK.

For around Barack's table, such freedom's a default.

Hope will will rise from ashes when sane calm prevails, replacing boorish self-indulgence.

We need a cool change.



Here's Andrew Sullivan's chosen anthem as well. SOURCE

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